Supply outlook
What is likely to be harvested in Benguet's highland municipalities, where, and how far to trust it. Open to everyone, no sign-in needed.
Farmers
Look for High supply before planting or harvesting the same crop: many growers harvesting at once usually means lower prices. See when each crop usually peaks.
Traders and vendors
Use the signals to plan buying and transport. Low supply means fewer deliveries than usual that month. See where it is grown.
Local governments
Check each crop and municipality, and how reliable the forecast is. Open crop details.
Series with records
102
Latest record: Dec 2023
High-reliability forecasts
13 of 294
Forecast run: 2026-10-30
Early alerts
7
Only High-reliability forecasts trigger one
Coverage
13 · 9
municipalities · crops
Signals worth a look
40 forecasts shown · usual = average of the same calendar month, 2014–2021 · high supply ≥ +50%, low supply ≤ −30%
| Municipality · crop | Month | Signal | Forecast with 80% range (tick = usual) | Reliability | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Trinidad Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +560% vs usual · firm |
215 mt · range 167–274 · usual 33 | High | Alert buyers and traders early; check transport and cold storage |
| Kapangan Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +482% vs usual · firm |
780 mt · range 409–1,241 · usual 134 | High | Alert buyers and traders early; check transport and cold storage |
| Tublay Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +147% vs usual · firm |
85 mt · range 46–133 · usual 34 | High | Alert buyers and traders early; check transport and cold storage |
| Atok Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
Low supply -49% vs usual |
11 mt · range 2–22 · usual 22 | High | Plan sourcing; confirm next month |
| Kibungan Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
Low supply -47% vs usual |
21 mt · range 0–72 · usual 39 | High | Plan sourcing; confirm next month |
| Sablan Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
Low supply -45% vs usual |
15 mt · range 0–62 · usual 27 | High | Plan sourcing; confirm next month |
| Itogon Sweet Pepper |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
Low supply -42% vs usual |
3 mt · range 0–14 · usual 5 | High | Plan sourcing; confirm next month |
| Kapangan Broccoli |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +700% vs usual · firm |
9 mt · range 3–16 · usual 1 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| La Trinidad Sweet Pepper |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +459% vs usual · firm |
189 mt · range 143–258 · usual 34 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kabayan Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +420% vs usual · firm |
3,848 mt · range 2,525–5,489 · usual 740 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kapangan Sweet Pepper |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +317% vs usual · firm |
767 mt · range 409–1,310 · usual 184 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| La Trinidad Broccoli |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +309% vs usual · firm |
589 mt · range 300–949 · usual 144 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kapangan Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +185% vs usual · firm |
9 mt · range 3–17 · usual 3 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| La Trinidad Sweet Pepper |
Jun 2024 6 months ahead |
High supply +175% vs usual · firm |
103 mt · range 54–189 · usual 38 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kapangan Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +140% vs usual · firm |
14 mt · range 9–20 · usual 6 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| La Trinidad Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +120% vs usual · firm |
127 mt · range 65–204 · usual 58 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Atok Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +83% vs usual · firm |
70 mt · range 55–93 · usual 38 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Atok Sweet Pepper |
Jun 2024 6 months ahead |
Low supply -77% vs usual · firm |
7 mt · range 0–23 · usual 30 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Itogon Sweet Pepper |
Jun 2024 6 months ahead |
Low supply -73% vs usual · firm |
8 mt · range 0–24 · usual 30 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Tublay Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +69% vs usual · firm |
48 mt · range 31–69 · usual 28 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kibungan Sweet Pepper |
Jun 2024 6 months ahead |
Low supply -61% vs usual · firm |
51 mt · range 9–124 · usual 131 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Mankayan Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +102% vs usual |
3,090 mt · range 651–6,119 · usual 1,528 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Mankayan Broccoli |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +96% vs usual |
188 mt · range 27–388 · usual 96 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kapangan Sweet Pepper |
Jun 2024 6 months ahead |
High supply +86% vs usual |
648 mt · range 265–1,312 · usual 349 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Tuba Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +81% vs usual |
33 mt · range 9–63 · usual 18 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Atok Cabbage |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +79% vs usual |
3,065 mt · range 1,610–4,872 · usual 1,716 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Mankayan Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +77% vs usual |
100 mt · range 0–336 · usual 56 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Buguias Broccoli |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +72% vs usual |
109 mt · range 45–188 · usual 63 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Bokod Sweet Pepper |
Jun 2024 6 months ahead |
High supply +71% vs usual |
46 mt · range 14–102 · usual 27 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kibungan Broccoli |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
Low supply -63% vs usual |
3 mt · range 0–8 · usual 7 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Sablan Sweet Pepper |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +60% vs usual |
13 mt · range 0–69 · usual 8 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Tublay Broccoli |
Jan 2024 1 month ahead |
High supply +59% vs usual |
48 mt · range 26–76 · usual 30 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Bokod Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +57% vs usual |
35 mt · range 12–68 · usual 22 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| La Trinidad Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
High supply +56% vs usual |
449 mt · range 170–873 · usual 288 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kabayan Sweet Pepper |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
Low supply -52% vs usual |
38 mt · range 0–116 · usual 80 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kibungan Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
Low supply -51% vs usual |
2 mt · range 0–8 · usual 4 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Kabayan Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
Low supply -49% vs usual |
54 mt · range 0–175 · usual 105 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Itogon Sweet Pepper |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
Low supply -40% vs usual |
17 mt · range 8–30 · usual 28 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Tublay Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
Low supply -39% vs usual |
22 mt · range 1–55 · usual 37 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
| Bakun Broccoli |
Mar 2024 3 months ahead |
Low supply -31% vs usual |
15 mt · range 0–62 · usual 21 | Medium | Watch: confirm next month |
Where the forecasts can be trusted
Tested on the most recent held-out year, all municipalities together · WAPE = share of production missed · skill = gain over repeating last year's pattern.
| Crop | 1 month ahead | 3 months ahead | 6 months ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broccoli | Medium WAPE 0.30 · skill +0.24 | Medium WAPE 0.32 · skill +0.21 | Low WAPE 0.40 · skill +0.00 |
| Cabbage | Medium WAPE 0.26 · skill +0.15 | Low WAPE 0.31 · skill +0.01 | Not recommended WAPE 0.34 · skill -0.10 |
| Carrots | Not recommended WAPE 0.21 · skill -0.04 | Not recommended WAPE 0.23 · skill -0.13 | Not recommended WAPE 0.32 · skill -0.58 |
| Chinese Cabbage | Not recommended WAPE 0.24 · skill -0.88 | Not recommended WAPE 0.27 · skill -1.09 | Not recommended WAPE 0.21 · skill -0.62 |
| Lettuce | Low WAPE 0.26 · skill +0.09 | Low WAPE 0.28 · skill +0.02 | Low WAPE 0.27 · skill +0.03 |
| Radish | Not recommended WAPE 0.50 · skill -0.02 | Low WAPE 0.49 · skill +0.01 | Not recommended WAPE 0.53 · skill -0.07 |
| Sweet Pepper | High WAPE 0.29 · skill +0.63 | Medium WAPE 0.42 · skill +0.47 | Medium WAPE 0.40 · skill +0.49 |
| Tomato | Low WAPE 0.63 · skill +0.66 | Low WAPE 0.79 · skill +0.57 | Low WAPE 0.79 · skill +0.57 |
| White Potato | Not recommended WAPE 0.26 · skill -0.26 | Not recommended WAPE 0.24 · skill -0.18 | Not recommended WAPE 0.33 · skill -0.59 |